Moody's said Russia may be in default because it tried to service its dollar bonds in roubles, which would be one of the starkest consequences to date of Moscow's exclusion from the Western financial system since President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
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If Moscow is declared in default, it would mark Russia's first major default on foreign bonds since the years following the 1917 Bolshevik revolution, though the Kremlin says the West is forcing a default by imposing crippling sanctions.
Russia made a payment due on April 4 on two sovereign bonds - maturing in 2022 and 2042 - in roubles rather than the dollars it was mandated to pay under the terms of the securities.
Russia "therefore may be considered a default under Moody's definition if not cured by 4 May, which is the end of the grace period," Moody's said in a statement on Thursday.
"The bond contracts have no provision for repayment in any other currency other than dollars."
Moody's said that while some Russian eurobonds issued after 2018 allow payments in roubles under some conditions, those issued before 2018 - such as those maturing in 2022 and 2042 - do not.
"Moody's view is that investors did not obtain the foreign-currency contractual promise on the payment due date," Moody's said.